French lawmakers voted on Monday to remove Prime Minister François Bayrou, thrusting the country into fresh political turmoil at a time of mounting economic strain and international challenges.
Bayrou lost the confidence vote by 364 votes to 194, far above the 280 required to topple his government. The prime minister himself had initiated the vote in an effort to secure backing for a controversial €44 billion ($51 billion) austerity package that included cutting two public holidays and freezing state spending.
His defeat forces him out after only nine months in office, following the fall of his predecessor, Michel Barnier, in a no-confidence vote late last year. The Élysée Palace confirmed that President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, though Bayrou’s resignation leaves Macron with limited and politically fraught choices.
Markets reacted sharply to the upheaval, with French bond yields climbing above those of Spain, Portugal, and Greece countries once at the epicenter of the eurozone debt crisis. Analysts also warned that France faces the risk of a sovereign credit downgrade later this week.
“You may bring down a government, but you cannot undo reality,” Bayrou warned lawmakers before the vote, stressing that rising expenses and debt would remain unavoidable burdens. He also lamented that France had “broken the social contract” with its younger generations.
The crisis has roots in Macron’s decision last year to call snap elections after the far-right National Rally made significant gains in the 2024 European Parliament contest. His party subsequently lost ground to both the far right and far left, leaving parliament fractured.
Bayrou is expected to formally tender his resignation to Macron on Tuesday. Among the names tipped to succeed him are Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, though the role is widely seen as politically perilous.
Even before Bayrou’s ouster, pressure had mounted on Macron himself to resign. Marine Le Pen has demanded that he dissolve parliament, though fresh elections would likely boost her party and deepen political gridlock. Meanwhile, opposition forces on both the left and right have vowed to immediately trigger another no-confidence vote if Macron attempts to install yet another centrist prime minister.
Whoever steps in as France’s next prime minister will inherit a budget battle no less contentious than before. The Socialist Party is pushing to raise taxes on the wealthy and undo Macron’s corporate tax cuts positions firmly rejected by Les Républicains, the conservative party whose support is crucial in the fragile coalition born of last year’s snap election. The result is that France’s fiscal troubles are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
If another snap parliamentary vote were held, an Elabe survey indicates the far-right National Rally would take first place, followed by the left, with Macron’s centrist alliance trailing far behind. Many observers now expect the far right to gain power eventually whether sooner or after the 2027 presidential race though few think it would resolve France’s underlying challenges.
Public confidence in politicians has cratered, and unrest is poised to spill into the streets. The far left has called for mass demonstrations on Wednesday under the slogan “Bloquons tout” (“Let’s block everything”), while trade unions have scheduled another mobilization for September 18.
This turmoil comes at a highly precarious time globally, with wars still raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. Political instability in Paris is seen as a boon to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump, who have long relished pointing to Europe’s fragility.
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